There is nothing harder in fantasy baseball than picking your team’s starting pitchers. Sure, if you are willing to use a high draft pick or a whole bunch of auction loot on Johan Santana or Jake Peavy, things are a little less difficult. But what about after the top five or six hurlers, after the (almost) guaranteed studs are gone? What then?
Outside of the top few guys, most starting pitchers will give you some wicked agita at some point during the season. Some will suddenly go south. Some will get hurt. Others are going to develop mental blocks that can overpower a pitcher quicker than a 2001 Barry Bonds swing.
Yeah, hitters slump too, but at least a hitter plays every day and thus can give you hope that he will bust out of a downturn. When a starter is off even once, he can mess up your fantasy team for a week.
Some fantasy owners respond to this uncertainty by favoring a relief-based approach that emphasizes ERA, WHIP and saves. But it's tough to win your fantasy league unless you've got plenty of wins and strikeouts, and those stats only come from good starting pitching.
The basic rule when drafting starters is this: be careful where you take your chances. Be willing to pay for proven quality early on, but also take some late round or low-dollar shots on a couple of guys who fall into the “good chance” category.
To start things off (no bad pun intended) here are the top five fantasy starting pitchers.
1. Jake Peavy, San Diego Padres (2007 Stats: 19-6, 2.54 ERA, 240 Ks, 1.06 WHIP).
Peavy won the NL pitching Triple Crown in 2007, leading in wins, ERA and strikeouts. He also had the lowest WHIP in the majors among starters. Peavy is even more attractive because he pitches his home games in spacious PetCo Park, and those far-off walls give him a decided advantage over a guy like Cole Hamels of the Phillies, who is great but is forced to toil in tiny Citizens Bank Park.
2. Johan Santana, New York Mets (15-13, 3.33 ERA, 235 Ks, 1.073 WHIP).
Even in what many are calling a "down" year, Santana won 15 games, struck out 235 batters in 219 innings, posted a 3.33 ERA, and had a 1.07 WHIP. Not too shabby.
This year, Santana will be even better for three reasons: (1) he'll face pitchers instead of designated hitters; (2) the talent level among batsmen is lower in the NL than the AL; and (3) he will surrender fewer homers in Shea Stadium than he did in the Metrodome.
Take him above Peavy if you want; he's that good.
3. C.C. Sabathia, Cleveland Indians (19-6, 3.21 ERA, 209 Ks, 1.14 WHIP).
This big lefty won last year's American League Cy Young Award on the strength of 209 strikeouts in a major-league-leading 241 innings, to go with an incredibly low 37 walks. He's also got a tremendous offense supporting him, which means that Sabathia can deliver wins even when he doesn't have his best stuff.
4. Josh Beckett, Boston Red Sox (20-7, 3.21 ERA, 194 Ks, 1.14 WHIP).
Sure, Beckett pitches in a hitters dream park, but this 27-year old righty appears to have finally hit his stride in the big leagues. Last year, he won more games than any pitcher in baseball, and produced quite well in all other starting pitcher fantasy categories with 194 Ks, a 3.27 ERA, and a 1.14 WHIP.
Take him early and feel confident that he will give you 16-18 wins, a mid-threes ERA, a WHIP below 1.20 and right around 200 strikeouts.
5. Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamondbacks (18-10, 194 Ks, 3.01 ERA, 1.19 WHIP).
Webb is still only 28 years old, he won the National League Cy Young Award in 2006, and followed that up with an excellent 2007 season: 18 wins, 194 strikeouts, a 1.19 WHIP and a 3.01 ERA. Webb is also extremely valuable because he has made every one of his scheduled starts in his five year career, he keeps the horsehide in the ballpark, and he almost never blows up.
Plus, he has the capacity to go on a dominating run like the 42-inning scoreless streak he put together in 2007.
The Rest of the Best Among Fantasy Starting Pitchers